The European Commission has published estimates of the main trends and prospects of agricultural and trade policies from 2020 to 2030.The following are the main results for certain types of markets, including cereals, milk and meat.
Total agricultural area
The total agricultural area of Europe is expected to decrease slightly, mainly due to the reduction in the area under cereals and oilseeds. In contrast, the use of pasture, fodder and protein crops is expected to increase.The organic production area is also expected to increase and reach 10% of the total agricultural area by 2030 (in the absence of measures stemming from the CAP reform currently under negotiation).
The total production of cereals in the EU, thanks to the increase in yields, is expected to remain stable at around 277 million tonnes.In trade, the EU’s export position should be strengthened thanks to the convergence of EU and world prices and proximity to import markets, especially in the Mediterranean region and sub-Saharan Africa.
Sugar:the EU could become a net exporter
The decrease in human consumption of sugar should only be partially replaced by non-calorie sweeteners and increased use of isoglucose in processed foods.The increase in sugar exports for processed products should limit the drop in consumption, while competitive prices should enable the EU to become a net exporter of sugar.
Milk:growing the biological one
The sustainability objectives of milk and other dairy products could result in a more moderate annual growth in EU milk production (0.6%).The sector is likely to further improve agricultural practices, focusing in particular on animal welfare through measures to prevent diseases and injuries.In particular, the share of organic milk production is expected to reach 10% in 2030 (3.5% in 2018).The EU is also expected to remain the largest exporter of dairy products in the world.
Less meat and more sustainable
The sustainability of meat will play a leading role in EU meat markets, both among producers and consumers.In the short term, the global disease situation, such as epidemics and subsequent recovery of African swine fever (ASF) in Asia or the current covid-19 pandemic, cause much uncertainty as to the overall demand for meat. Per capita meat consumption in the EU is expected to fall by 1.1kg to 67.6kg by 2030.Environmental concerns, the risk of ASF and the evolution of consumer preferences are likely to limit pigmeat production in the EU.The EU’s demand for poultrymeat is expected to grow steadily, as consumers consider it a healthy and sustainable product.Poultry production is expected to be the only category of meat to increase, partly due to a trend in exports which should continue to benefit from the enhancement of boned specific cuts.